Trump Card

With Super Tuesday behind us and another 595 delegates awarded, Businessman Donald Trump looks to be unstoppable in his quest to become the Republican Party's nominee for the 2016 Presidential Election. Currently, Trump holds commitments from 319 delegates, almost a hundred more than the next closest candidate. Polls currently have Trump ahead in most of the upcoming primaries/caucuses, including the crucial March 15 contests of Florida and Ohio; wins in those two states could virtually guarantee Trump the nomination.

Many in the Republican Party are concerned about the implications of a Trump candidacy both for the party and the nation; his eccentricities and character flaws are well-documented (so I won't bore you with rehashing them here), and most Americans not directly supporting his candidacy harbor a highly negative opinion of him. This has brought into question his ability to win enough "mainstream" support to win a general election, as well as the impact he will have on the image of the RNC going forward.

In this unfamiliar scenario, three questions come to mind: What, exactly, has led to Donald Trump's rise to prominence? What mistakes did the other Republican candidates make that allowed Trump to obtain the mantle of frontrunner? And what can be done now to prevent Trump from winning the nomination? I'll explore each of these questions and present my answer for each one.

From Novelty to Frontrunner

For all of his shortcomings, Donald Trump has one thing going for him: He has a larger-than-life persona. Whether it's because of his multi-billion dollar business, his reality TV show, or his foray into politics, everyone knows Donald Trump. However, I think the more interesting question is this: What does he represent? What does a New York City jet-set billionaire have that makes him so appealing to the American blue-collar Average Joes that they will turn out in huge numbers to support him?

Simply put, many Americans are upset. They're upset with the economy, where low-skill jobs that offer middle-class wages are quickly disappearing. They're upset at the state of the world, where the threat of terrorism is at its highest point in years. And they're upset with the government, which has been stuck in political gridlock for years. These same Americans see Donald Trump as the answer to these issues, an outsider who isn't afraid to clean house and make the bold moves that'll get the country running again without regard for political expediency (as opposed to the other candidates, who ostensibly represent the status quo). After all, why wouldn't someone who possesses the acumen to build and run such a successful business empire on sheer force of will be a good fit for President of the United States?

Misunderestimated

At the beginning of the race, the other Republican candidates didn't see Trump as being a serious threat. After all, they were the established figures in the party and he was a political newcomer who had to pay people to attend his campaign announcement! How could anyone take him seriously as Commander-in-Chief? In fact, you could see this dismissive attitude toward Trump in the early debates where the other candidates scarcely acknowledged his presence and instead took potshots at the Democrats and one another. In retrospect, this was a missed opportunity to cut Trump down to size early.

In addition, the fracturing of the Republican field hasn't helped. Trump's support comes mainly from those looking for an "non-establishment" candidate and he has rallied almost all of those voters behind his campaign. However, the non-establishment supporters are still outnumbered by the "establishment" supporters; should these voters rally behind a single candidate (like the non-establishment voters have done for Trump), then that candidate would likely win the party's nomination. The problem is that there were/are quite a few establishment candidates and each have been hesitant to drop out; Rand Paul only dropped out after Iowa, Chris Christie didn't drop out until after New Hampshire, Jeb Bush waited until after South Carolina, and John Kasich's campaign is still active.

While these candidates haven't won many delegates, they have kept support away from Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, the two who could conceivably defeat Trump one-on-one. Had the Republican candidates who knew from early on that the nomination was unwinnable dropped out then, more support would have been opened up to rally behind a non-Trump candidate.

No Lead is Safe

As imminent as a Trump candidacy looks now, it still isn't a foregone conclusion. Many elements of the Republican Party are strongly opposed to him and he still needs to win over 900 additional delegates to clinch the nomination. In addition, Cruz and Rubio had strong performances on Super Tuesday (Cruz winning Oklahoma, Texas, and Alaska, and Rubio winning Minnesota), which could be a telling sign that Trump's campaign can be defeated. Should the remaining non-Trump candidates win enough delegates to prevent Trump from clinching the nomination before the convention, this would force a "brokered" convention.

In the event of a brokered convention, the delegates are free to vote for whichever delegate they choose. In this scenario, the delegates who were previously pledged to candidates other than Trump will need to coalesce around a single "alternative" candidate to defeat Trump. Since it is understood that in this scenario the non-Trump delegates will outnumber the Trump delegates and the non-Trump delegates will be unlikely to support Trump, this would effectively give the nomination to the alternative candidate (likely Cruz or Rubio).

In conclusion, while Donald Trump's rise to the front of the RNC race has been remarkable (for better or for worse), the fact is that it's the stresses that today's world has placed on everyday Americans that have helped put him there. In addition, missteps by the Republican establishment early in the race allowed Trump to shore up his support build a lead to the point where he's nearly unsurpassable. However, all is not lost: Trump can still be defeated and there are still many more primaries/caucuses yet to take place. Should the Republican candidates (and their supports) play it smart from here on out, there is a possibility that they could Dump the Trump.