Granite State of Mind

Last night, New Hampshire held its Presidential primary and unsurprisingly (at least, if you've been following the polls), Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump each scored resounding victories. And while this is only one state and the nomination process is far from over, I think that the results of last night's primary tell us a lot about the state of the election.

Let's start on the Democratic side. Well before her candidacy was even officially announced, everyone knew that Hillary Clinton was going to be in the running for the nomination. There was a lot of excitement among Democrats at this prospect; after all, they had just successfully voted the first black President into office to much fanfare, so it follows that the novelty of putting the first woman into office would be too much to resist.

However, novel as that idea may be, Hillary is tied very closely to the Democratic "establishment" (traditional party center where most of the party support and resources are focused), which has become very unpopular since the last election. This is especially true with young Democrats, who feel that they were betrayed by the broken promise of "Change We Can Believe In" when they elected Barack Obama (the Affordable Care Act, or "ObamaCare", was far from the health care revolution it was sold as, and the rest of Obama's time in office has proven unproductive).

Instead, young Democrats have embraced the "non-establishment" (standing within the party but apart from the "establishment") candidate Bernie Sanders, a self-described socialist who has made initiatives like universal single-payer health care, tuition-free higher education, and the dissolution of major financial institutions the main points of his campaign. Sanders' more revolutionary goals of an expanded welfare state and higher taxation strike a chord with young, idealistic voters who are still recovering from the recession and want to see more social guarantees. From here on out, the Democratic nomination looks to become a pitched battle for the party's future.

On the Republican side, Donald Trump has finally broken through and scored the big win that many had been predicting since he rose to frontrunner status. After his upset loss in Iowa, some observers had been questioning whether the polls showing huge national support for Trump were accurate, but it seems as if the New Hampshire primary has put those doubts to rest. Like on the Democratic side, there is a divide in the Republican party between the establishment and the non-establishment, with the latter group showing some real muscle after propelling Cruz and Tump to victories in Iowa and New Hampshire, respectively.

The real question now is if another Republican candidate (Rubio, Kasich, Bush) can round up enough establishment support to defeat Donald. Before this primary, I would have told you that Rubio had the bet shot at doing just that, but his gaffe at this past Saturday's debate (repeating himself three time while being mocked for doing so by Christie) seems to have hurt him (finishing 4th in New Hampshire where he was projected to finish 2nd beforehand). However, now that Christie and Fiorina are both dropping out, more mainstream Republican support should start freeing up to coalesce around a candidate who can serve as an alternative to the Trump firebrand.

That said, the South Carolina debate is this Saturday (8:00 p.m. CST on CBS) with the primary following a week thereafter. As we saw in New Hampshire, a debate this close to a primary can have a significant impact on the outcome and this field is tighter now than it has been in quite some time. If you have the opportunity, be sure to tune in!