Pullin' Gs

Recently, AT&T announced that they have begun rolling out their new 5G network on a trial basis on Austin, TX, with Verizon following suit with its own field tests later this year. The expectation across the industry is that 5G services will be widely available in the next few years.

So, what's so great about 5G? For starters, AT&T is claiming that 5G can deliver data at speeds from 10 to 100 times faster than 4G. Fast enough, in fact, for wireless cellular-based internet access to supplant the fixed cable-based system used in most American residences (much like the new startup Starry Internet). In addition, 5G is designed to be more software reliant, meaning that future upgrades should be faster and easier; rather than replacing a large amount of hardware, the network can be updated by simply deploying new firmware. Should these claims come to fruition, we could be looking at a seismic shift in the internet service landscape in America. After all, who wouldn't want to download a movie to their phone in seconds (as opposed to hours) and dump their expensive cable internet connection for a faster (and presumably cheaper) wireless solution? While all of that does sound good, I do harbor a few concerns.

First off, one problem the wireless industry has been grappling with for years is capacity. Since wireless networks are relatively new and almost everyone owns a smartphone (which, in turn, typically employ multiple processes and applications that consume a substantial amount of data on a daily basis), cellular carriers have been concerned about how much traffic their networks can effectively handle. To prevent the networks from becoming too congested, most cellular data plans include data caps to discourage consumers from using too much data. While these usage-based caps have proven effective in preventing any widespread data delivery issues (at least according to the carriers), they remain a major point of contention for consumers. After all, what's the point of having a phone that I can stream a movie on if I'm just going to hit my monthly data cap a quarter of the way through?

In this way, increasing speeds is like putting a bigger engine in a car without increasing the fuel capacity: You'll go faster, but not farther. Likewise, while network speeds have steadily improved over the years, data caps really haven't budged. Personally, I would venture to say that most users are much more satisfied with their connection speeds than their data usage limits; after all, my cellular connection speed from my desk at work is 16.5 Mbps (with a 3 GB monthly cap), which is not much slower than my 20 Mbps DSL connection (with no usage cap) at home. However, it seems as if the major carriers have spent much more time and effort attempting to improve network speed and coverage rather than capacity; I can only guess as to why this is (possibly a better return on investment?), but I can tell you that unless the rollout of 5G is met with a significant data cap increase (or outright elimination), the new technology is going to be greeted by consumers with resounding indifference.

Secondly, could coverage be extensive enough to make 5G a viable replacement for land-based internet? Certainly, building and maintaining the infrastructure would be easier; instead of laying untold miles of cables, a carrier could simply install towers that could each deliver wireless internet access across a large area. However, as with cellular connections today, natural and man-made obstructions could come into play. For instance, what about customers who live in a rural, heavily wooded areas? The obstructions caused by the trees, hills, and other geographic features would degrade the wireless signal, potentially delivering a consumer experience inferior to that of traditional terrestrial internet. That said, it's worthing pointing out that these very consumers struggle mightily to obtain access to traditional cable internet due to the expense of building out the infrastructure (a problem 5G would presumably not suffer), so this point could well be moot.

Finally, how much would all of this cost? While major investments in new technology are, by nature, very costly, let's be realistic: Consumers are very price-conscious and aren't likely to quickly adopt something that is too expensive. For example, once 5G coverage starts to be built out, we'll see a new generation of 5G-compatible phone hit the market. However, it's not outside the realm of possibility that the carriers, in an attempt to recoup some of the cost of their investment, may elect to place a 5G "tax" (or likely they'll call it something like an "access fee") on each 5G device purchased through them. In addition, in more conspicuous manner, the carrier may simply choose to increase the cost of their data plan offerings to achieve the same end. Also, in the case that a home internet access plan is offered, how would its pricing compare to traditional cable internet? Earlier I presumed that it would be cheaper since the infrastructure would be less expensive to build and maintain, but the initial rollout of any new service is going to incur significant cost; early adopters may be compelled to foot the bill for that investment.

In conclusion, while I do think that the introduction of 5G technology is exciting and a big step forward, I'm going to be careful about getting too enamored before my concerns are addressed; after all, I'd take cautious enthusiasm as an alternative to risking crushing disappointment, haha. As always, feel free to let me know what you think and what questions or concerns you may have about this plan for 5G service.